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The 2023 NCAA Tournament has been whittled to just 16 teams after a wild first weekend which saw a No. 16 seed (Fairleigh Dickinson) beat a No. 1 seed (Purdue) for just the second time ever.
Throw in a No. 15 seed (Princeton) which strung together back-to-back upsets and it's made for an unprecedented tournament so far.
The table below shows the updated odds to win March Madness for the 16 teams that survived the first and second rounds. The remaining teams can be stratified into four distinct tiers.
2023 March Madness Odds
| Team | Odds |
| Alabama | +350 |
| Houston | +360 |
| UCLA | +900 |
| UConn | +900 |
| Texas | +1000 |
| Creighton | +1000 |
| Tennessee | +1100 |
| Gonzaga | +1100 |
| Michigan State | +3000 |
| Arkansas | +3000 |
| Xavier | +3500 |
| San Diego State | +3500 |
| Kansas State | +3500 |
| Florida Atlantic | +4500 |
| Miami | +4500 |
| Princeton | +18000 |
Here is how the bracket looks after the second round:
Tier 1: The NCAA Tournament Favorites
At the top of the board, there is a clear cutoff between South Region No. 1 Alabama (+350), Midwest Region No. 1 Houston (+360), and the rest of the field, which starts with UCLA and Conn at +900.
The implied win probability for Alabama (22.2%) and Houston (21.7%) is more than double the third-favorites (10%). The gap is somewhat hard to explain from an analytics standpoint. While Houston and Alabama do rate first and second, respectively, at KenPom, the teams that rate third through seventh are all still alive in the 2023 NCAA Tournament (UCLA, UConn, Texas, Tennessee, and Gonzaga) and the adjusted-efficiency numbers for that septet are all quite comparable, especially the top four.
Other sites (Haslametrics, for instance) don't even have Alabama and Houston at the top, instead rating UCLA as the top team in the country in terms of adjusted efficiency.
Tier 2: Legit Contenders
The next tier is comprised of six teams with odds between +900 and +1100. Those six teams are No. 2 UCLA, No. 4 UConn, No. 2 Texas, No. 6 Creighton, No. 4 Tennessee, and No. 3 Gonzaga.
Along with Alabama and Houston, those are seven of the teams which are favored in the Sweet 16 matchups: Alabama is a 6.5-point favorite over San Diego State. Houston is a 7.5-point favorite over Miami. UConn is a 4-point favorite over Arkansas. Creighton is a 10-point favorite over Princeton. Texas is a 4-point favorite over Xavier. and Tennessee is a 5.5-point favorite over Florida Atlantic.
The only team among the top-eight favorites that isn't favored in its Sweet 16 matchup is Gonzaga, which is a modest 1-point underdog to UCLA.
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